MBA Chart of the Week: Goods and Services Inflation

The week’s news has been around the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release showing that inflation was hotter than expected in March, which is likely to delay the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in 2024 and contributed to a significant spike in the 10-year Treasury yield to over 4.5%.

MBA Chart of the Week: IMB Production Revenues and Costs

MBA recently released its latest Quarterly Performance Report for the fourth quarter of 2023. The total sample of 342 independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks reported per-tax net production losses of 73 basis points (or $2,109) on each loan they originated. This marks the seventh consecutive quarter of net production losses.

MBA Chart of the Week: Annual Origination Loan Counts

MBA’s January 2024 forecast calls for mortgage origination dollar volume to increase 23% in 2024 to $2 trillion, with a 16% increase in purchase and a 50% increase in refinance volume (off an extremely low base in 2023). For mortgage lenders of all types and sizes, as well as other industry players, it is also important to have an estimate of how many origination units are expected.

MBA Chart of the Week: Purchase Applications Payment Index for Selected States

The monthly cost burden of purchasing a new home, as interest rates and house prices rose precipitously in 2022, has continued into 2023. Indeed, the most recent Weekly Applications Survey release noted that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 7.67% – the highest level since 2000, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index shows that house prices continue to appreciate even as interest rates have eclipsed 7%.