MBA Chart of the Week: Monthly Payroll Growth and Unemployment Rate

The job market definitively slowed in July. Nonfarm payroll growth at 114,000 was well below the 12-month average of 215,000, while the unemployment rate moved up to its highest level since October 2021 at 4.3%, as shown in this week’s chart.

MBA Chart of the Week: Monthly Payroll Growth, Average Hourly Earnings

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the federal funds target unchanged at its May meeting, as incoming data regarding the strength of the economy and stubbornly high inflation have resulted in a shift in the expected timing of a first rate cut.

MBA Chart of the Week: Goods and Services Inflation

The week’s news has been around the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release showing that inflation was hotter than expected in March, which is likely to delay the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in 2024 and contributed to a significant spike in the 10-year Treasury yield to over 4.5%.

MBA: Mortgage Credit Availability Increased in January

Mortgage credit availability increased in January according to the Mortgage Credit Availability Index, a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association that analyzes data from ICE Mortgage Technology.

MBA Forecast: Recession Likely in 2023, Mortgage Originations to Decline 9% to $2.05 Trillion

NASHVILLE—The Mortgage Bankers Association said total mortgage origination volume is expected to decline to $2.05 trillion in 2023 from the $2.26 trillion expected in 2022. Purchase originations are forecast to decrease by 3 percent to $1.53 trillion next year, while refinance volume is anticipated to decline by 24 percent to $513 billion.