MBA Chart of the Week: Annual Origination Loan Counts

MBA’s January 2024 forecast calls for mortgage origination dollar volume to increase 23% in 2024 to $2 trillion, with a 16% increase in purchase and a 50% increase in refinance volume (off an extremely low base in 2023). For mortgage lenders of all types and sizes, as well as other industry players, it is also important to have an estimate of how many origination units are expected.

MBA Chart of the Week: Purchase Applications Payment Index for Selected States

The monthly cost burden of purchasing a new home, as interest rates and house prices rose precipitously in 2022, has continued into 2023. Indeed, the most recent Weekly Applications Survey release noted that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 7.67% – the highest level since 2000, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index shows that house prices continue to appreciate even as interest rates have eclipsed 7%.

MBA Chart of the Week Oct. 2: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for Fed Funds Rate

Each quarter, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) submit their projections for various economic measures (i.e., real gross domestic product growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate). This month’s projections, shown in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), included 2026 for the first time.

MBA Chart of the Week Oct. 2: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for Fed Funds Rate

Each quarter, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) submit their projections for various economic measures (i.e., real gross domestic product growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the federal funds rate). This month’s projections, shown in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), included 2026 for the first time.

MBA Chart of the Week: Selected Indexes of Housing Costs

The monthly cost burden of purchasing a new home, as interest rates and house prices rose precipitously in 2022, continued in the first few months of 2023. For example, MBA’s Purchase Applications Payment Index (PAPI), hit a new high in May. Since then, despite 30-year mortgage interest rates eclipsing 7%, the index has come down slightly as median loan application amounts moderated. We are, however, still in record territory as shown by the solid green line in this week’s chart.