MBA Forecast: Recession Likely in 2023, Mortgage Originations to Decline 9% to $2.05 Trillion

NASHVILLE—The Mortgage Bankers Association said total mortgage origination volume is expected to decline to $2.05 trillion in 2023 from the $2.26 trillion expected in 2022. Purchase originations are forecast to decrease by 3 percent to $1.53 trillion next year, while refinance volume is anticipated to decline by 24 percent to $513 billion.

MBA: August Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Falls to 0.72%

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s monthly Loan Monitoring Survey reported loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.74% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.72% as of August 31. MBA estimates 360,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

MBA Chart of the Week May 20, 2022: ARM Loan Trends

The recent increase in the adjustable-rate mortgage share of applications has caught the attention of market participants and the media. The ARM share has increased from 3.1 percent in the first week of January to 10.3 percent as of the week ending May 13, peaking at 10.8 percent the week prior.

Highlights of MBA’s Revised May Forecasts

The Mortgage Bankers Association released its revised monthly Economic Forecast and monthly Mortgage Finance Forecast. Here are highlights and commentary from MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting Joel Kan.

MBA Economists: Outlook Strong for Originations, Servicing

ORLANDO—Despite another potentially economy-altering event this week—this time, the Russian invasion of Ukraine—Mortgage Bankers Association economists said the current picture for mortgage originators and servicers remains upbeat.

Mortgage Applications Increase in MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday in its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending Sept. 4.

MBA April Economic Commentary: Economy Slows Sharply; Massive Job Loss; but V-Shaped Recovery in Forecast

The spread of the coronavirus has slowed global and U.S. economic activity to a halt. Public and private measures to stem the spread of the virus have led to indefinite interruptions in many sectors of the economy, as well as future uncertainty surrounding how long this pause in the global economy will last and what the potential economic losses could be.