MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.26% in November
(Image courtesy of MBA)
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.29% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.26% as of Nov. 30, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 130,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1 million borrowers since March 2020.
In November 2023, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance declined 2 basis points to 0.16%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased 5 basis points to 0.47%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 2 basis points to 0.30%.
“Nearly 96% of all home mortgages are performing, which underscores how strong servicing portfolio performance is right now with the same resilience seen in the U.S. labor market,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Meanwhile, the performance of loan workouts is solid, but declined last month. Roughly 70% of loan workouts initiated since 2020 are current.”
Added Walsh, “MBA forecasts an economic downturn in 2024, and there are signs of early distress in other credit types such as car loans and credit cards. Those borrowers who struggled in making their mortgage payments in the past may find themselves in similar situations in a softening economy and rising unemployment.”
Key Findings of MBA’s Loan Monitoring Survey – Nov. 1 to Nov. 30, 2023
Total loans in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points in November 2023 relative to September 2023: from 0.29% to 0.26%.By investor type, the share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased relative to the prior month: from 0.52% to 0.47%.
• The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased relative to the prior month: from 0.18% to 0.16%.
• The share of other loans (e.g., portfolio and PLS loans) in forbearance decreased relative to the prior month: from 0.32% to 0.30%.
Loans in forbearance as a share of servicing portfolio volume (#) as of November 30, 2023:
• Total: 0.26% (previous month: 0.29%)
• Independent Mortgage Banks (IMBs): 0.32% (previous month: 0.36%)
• Depositories: 0.23% (previous month: 0.23%)
By reason, 53.6% of borrowers are in forbearance for reasons such as a temporary hardship caused by job loss, death, divorce, or disability; while 34.3% of borrowers are in forbearance because of COVID-19. Another 12.1% are in forbearance because of a natural disaster.
By stage, 49.0% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 35.1% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 15.8% are forbearance re-entries, including re-entries with extensions.
Of the cumulative forbearance exits for the period from July 1, 2020, through November 30, 2023, at the time of forbearance exit:
• 29.4% resulted in a loan deferral/partial claim.
• 17.7% represented borrowers who continued to make their monthly payments during their forbearance period.
• 18.4% represented borrowers who did not make all of their monthly payments and exited forbearance without a loss mitigation plan in place yet.
• 16.1% resulted in a loan modification or trial loan modification.
• 10.8% resulted in reinstatements, in which past-due amounts are paid back when exiting forbearance.
• 6.5% resulted in loans paid off through either a refinance or by selling the home.
• The remaining 1.2% resulted in repayment plans, short sales, deed-in-lieus or other reasons.
Total loans serviced that were current (not delinquent or in foreclosure) as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased to 95.71% (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) in November 2023 from 95.80% in October 2023.
• The five states with the highest share of loans that were current as a percent of servicing portfolio: Washington, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, and Montana.
• The five states with the lowest share of loans that were current as a percent of servicing portfolio: Louisiana, Mississippi, Indiana, New York, and Illinois.
Total completed loan workouts from 2020 and onward (repayment plans, loan deferrals/partial claims, loan modifications) that were current as a percent of total completed workouts decreased to 71.28% in November from 72.30% the previous month.
MBA’s monthly Loan Monitoring Survey (replaced MBA’s Weekly Forbearance and Call Volume Survey in December 2021) covers the period from November 1 through November 30, 2023, and represents 64% of the first-mortgage servicing market (32.1 million loans). To subscribe to the full report, go to www.mba.org/loanmonitoring.
NOTES: For more detailed information on performance metrics, including seasonally adjusted delinquency rates by stage (30 days, 60 days, 90+ days), please refer to MBA’s Quarterly National Delinquency Survey at www.mba.org/nds. Fourth-quarter 2023 results will be released on Thursday, February 8, 2024.
The next publication of the Monthly Loan Monitoring Survey (LMS) will be released on Monday, January 22, 2024, at 4:00 p.m. ET.
