Economic Report Roundup: Inflation Pushes Up; Initial Claims Rise

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday reported its Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4 percent in September to an annual rate of 8.2 percent. Separately, the Labor Department reported initial claims for unemployment insurance rose for the second straight week.

BLS reported the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August. Over the past 12 months, the all-items index increased by 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

BLS cited increases in the shelter, food and medical care indexes as largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all-items increase. These increases were partly offset by a 4.9-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased.

“Inflation continues to bear formidable momentum,” said Sarah House, Senior Economist with Wells Fargo Economics, Charlotte, N.C. “[Thursday’s] report should lock the FOMC into yet another supersized 75 basis point rate hike at its November 2 meeting. Past that, we believe that inflation will start to slow enough such that the FOMC will feel comfortable downshifting to a 50 bps rate hike by its December meeting.”

Separately, the Labor Department on Thursday reported initial claims for unemployment insurance rose for the second straight week, although it remained low by recent historical standards.

Labor said for the week ending October 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims rose to 228,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 219,000. The four-week moving average rose to 211,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 206,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.0 percent for the week ending October 1. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 1 rose to 1,368,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The four-week moving average rose 1,363,750, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 199,662 in the week ending October 8, an increase of 32,275 (19.3 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 24,790 (or 14.8 percent) from the previous week. Labor reported 280,597 initial claims in the comparable week in 2021.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 0.8 percent during the week ending October 1, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,205,534, a decrease of 27,458 (-2.2 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 30,040 (-2.4 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.7 percent; volume was 2,262,792.

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending September 24 rose to 1,254,842, an increase of 7,935 from the previous week. Labor reported 3,649,033 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2021.