MBA Forecast: Commercial/Multifamily Lending Holds Steady Amid Higher Rates, Economic Uncertainty

Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to hold steady at a projected $895 billion in 2022, roughly in line with 2021 totals ($891 billion), the Mortgage Bankers Association said Monday.

The updated MBA forecast said multifamily lending alone will likely fall to $418 billion in 2022–down 11 percent from last year’s estimated record $470 billion. The MBA forecast anticipates borrowing and lending to grow in 2023, with nearly $950 billion in total commercial real estate lending and $442 billion in multifamily lending.

“The economic and interest rate outlook has shifted since MBA’s last updated commercial real estate finance forecast in February,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA Vice President for Commercial Real Estate Research. “The rapid rise in interest rates is expected to take some wind out of the sails of new lending activity, but healthy property fundamentals and strong property values should support the markets and keep commercial real estate mortgage demand at strong levels. Borrowing and lending should still match last year’s record levels.”

Woodwell said multifamily lending is expected to remain robust during the rest of 2022, “but is now expected to fall short of 2021’s record-high volumes.”

For additional commentary on the pandemic’s impact on the sector, visit MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Market Intelligence Blog.

MBA’s commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA’s latest Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at