MBA Chart of the Week: MBA Commercial/Multifamily Market Uncertainty Bingo

March 28, 2019

COTW

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

At this year’s MBA Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance (CREF) Convention & Expo in San Diego, more than 3,000 commercial and multifamily real estate finance professionals came together for the industry’s largest gathering of the year to hear from expert speakers, network with peers and gauge the state of the CREF industry.

The wide range of topics facing the industry prompted us to develop this Bingo card–which we unveiled at our opening general session–to help attendees navigate as they moved from issue to issue.

Areas of discussion ranged from those related to the market cycle (recession, dry powder, cap rates, late cycle, inverted yield curve), to public policy actions that are driving market activity (the Fed, government shutdown, flood insurance, SOFR, TRIA, Brexit, GSE reform, opportunity zones, tax reform), as well as other trends and events that are reshaping the market (debt funds, workforce housing, CECL, 2020 election, HQ2, single-family rental, CLOs, experiential retail).

There were no clear winners or losers of the Bingo contest, and fourth quarter 2018 data point to a still-robust market, with commercial/multifamily mortgage debt continuing to grow (https://www.mba.org/2019-press-releases/march/commercial/multifamily-mortgage-debt-climbs-68-percent-to-339-trillion-in-2018) and delinquencies remaining low (https://www.mba.org/2019-press-releases/march/commercial-and-multifamily-mortgage-delinquencies-remain-low-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2018).

However, it is clear that the commercial real estate finance industry is working through an inordinate number of factors that will affect its trajectory in the coming years.

(Mike Fratantoni is chief economist and senior vice president of research and economics with the Mortgage Bankers Association. He can be reached at mfratantoni@mba.org. Jamie Woodwell is vice president of commercial/multifamily research and economics with MBA;he can be reached at jwoodwell@mba.org.