Inside the 2024 HMDA Data: Growth, Gaps, and a Shifting Landscape

Laird Nossuli is CEO of iEmergent

Each year, the release of HMDA data offers a unique snapshot of how the mortgage industry is evolving: who it’s serving, where gaps persist, and how lenders are adapting. The 2024 data tells a story of early recovery and shifting dynamics, with independent mortgage banks gaining ground, refinancing activity returning, and persistent equity gaps shaping borrower outcomes.

Here are five key takeaways from the newest data and what they may signal for the future of mortgage lending.

First, loan volumes are rebounding—but remain well below historical norms

In 2024, lenders originated 4.9 million purchase and refinance loans totaling $1.67 trillion in dollar volume across purchase and refi, a modest increase from 4.5 million loans and $1.45 trillion in 2023. Refinances made up a larger share of purchase and refi dollars, increasing from 16.7% in 2023 to 23.5% in 2024.

Second, loan sizes continue to rise, reflecting affordability pressures

The average size of purchase and refinance loans increased to $339,903 in 2024, up from $323,282 in 2023. Rising home prices and higher interest rates continue to push borrowing costs upward. These affordability challenges may contribute to suppressed application volumes and a growing need for flexible loan products and down payment assistance strategies.

Third, independent mortgage banks are capturing a larger share of the market

Independent mortgage banks (IMBs) originated 65.4% of all purchase and refinance loans in 2024, up from 61.3% the previous year. IMBs also held most of the top 25 lender spots by loan count and volume. Notably, IMBs represented just 18% of all HMDA-reporting institutions, underscoring their disproportionate role in mortgage originations and signaling their continued importance—particularly in the purchase market.

Fourth, the market is becoming more concentrated among the largest lenders

The top five lenders by loan count represented 19.3% of all originations in 2024, up from 17.8% in 2023. Their share of total loan dollars also grew from 18.4% to 19.8%. This growing concentration suggests that competitive pressures may intensify for smaller lenders and credit unions—and that the industry may be increasingly shaped by the strategies of a few dominant players.

Fifty, denial rates are rising overall, with variation by lender type

While banks and credit unions reported slight decreases in denial rates from 2023 to 2024, IMBs saw a modest increase. Debt-to-income (DTI) ratios remained the leading cause of denials across all racial and ethnic groups. Meanwhile, racial disparities in approvals remain stark: in 2024, Black borrowers faced an 18% denial rate for purchase loans compared to just 9% for non-Hispanic white borrowers—even when accounting for income levels. These trends highlight the ongoing challenge of qualifying borrowers in a high-rate, high-price environment and reinforce the need for more equitable lending strategies.

The 2024 HMDA data paints a complex picture: modest growth amid structural headwinds and gradual shifts in who originates loans, who gets approved, and at what cost. As lenders and policymakers interpret these trends, a continued focus on equity, efficiency, and market responsiveness will be critical to shaping a more inclusive and sustainable mortgage landscape.

(Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect policies of the Mortgage Bankers Association, nor do they connote an MBA endorsement of a specific company, product or service. MBA NewsLink welcomes submissions from member firms. Inquiries can be sent to Editor Michael Tucker or Editorial Manager Anneliese Mahoney.)