MCT: January Lock Volume Rebounds

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Mortgage Capital Trading, San Diego, released its latest lock volume indices, showing that the numbers rebounded slightly in January after a depressed December.

Total lock volume rose 8.66% in January from December. The purchase lock index fell 2.96% from December, but rate/term refinance was up 49.41% and cash-out refinance was up 4.51%.

“January’s numbers highlight just how weak December was,” said Andrew Rhodes, head of trading at MCT. “Consumer sentiment pulled back sharply after the government shutdown, amplifying the typical seasonal slowdown. It was a meager month, and now we’re seeing a modest rebound.”

“An incremental drop in rates led to an incremental pickup in production,” Rhodes continued. “It wasn’t a major move, but it was enough to show that December wasn’t a true reflection of demand.”

“This is a wait-and-see market,” he said. “January showed that activity can come back when sentiment improves, but it also showed how fragile that sentiment still is.”

Year-over-year, the total volume index was up 41.3%, and the purchase volume index was up 2.08%. The rate/term refinance index was up a notable 612.83%, and cash-out refinance was up 54.62%.

Eyes are on the Federal Reserve and the future of potential rate cuts, especially with the recent nomination of a new chair by President Donald Trump.

“There’s a belief that the June meeting could be the new chair’s first decision,” Rhodes said. “It’s unlikely he’d want to come in and immediately rock the boat. To confirm Fed independence, the more likely path is patience, which pushes expectations closer to Q3. Historically, that lines up with cuts happening around September.”