ICE Mortgage Monitor: Early Spring Housing Market Shows Firmer Prices

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The spring housing market began on stronger footing, buoyed by improved affordability and slowly rebuilding inventory despite the recent uptick in interest rates, according to the latest ICE Mortgage Monitor report.

“Mortgage rates bottomed near 5.95% early this year, pushing affordability to its best levels in four years and helping drive two of the firmest monthly home price gains we’ve seen in over a year,” said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE.

Walden noted that since then, 30-year rates have risen roughly 40 basis points, pulling about 4% of buying power back out of the market and reshaping conditions from those early year peaks. “Even so, 99 out of 100 major markets still saw improved affordability from a year ago, and inventory continues to rebuild,” he added. “That combination is helping this spring market feel better supplied and more balanced than in recent years, even as rate volatility reasserts itself.”

Key findings from the April Mortgage Monitor include:

• Home price growth remains modest, but early spring brought the firmest monthly gains in nearly a year

Annual home price growth was 0.4% in March, while February and March saw the strongest seasonally adjusted monthly gains in nearly 12 months. The firming was driven in part by lower rates and better affordability earlier in 2026, though performance continues to vary widely by region.

• Inventory is recovering but remains below pre-pandemic norms

Housing inventory rose 8% year over year in March, yet active listings remain 11% below typical 2017–2019 levels. Forty percent of markets are at or above pre-pandemic supply, with the strongest gains in the Mountain West and parts of the South; deep deficits persist across much of the Northeast.

• The rate rebound has sharply reduced refinance incentives

Higher rates have cut the number of borrowers considered “in the money” for a refinance by roughly 60% from recent highs. ICE prepayment data also suggests the lock-in effect is more likely to ease gradually than unwind at any single rate threshold, as many homeowners–especially Baby Boomers–remain reluctant to move.

“Housing market conditions this spring point to a market that is gradually normalizing, but not evenly,” said Bob Hart, president of ICE Mortgage Technology. “Inventory is improving and affordability remains better than it was a year ago, but conditions still vary widely by geography, price point and borrower profile.”