November Job Growth Exceeds Expectation

(Image courtesy of BLS; Breakout image courtesy of Oudney Patsika/pexels.com)

November’s job creation bounced back from October and exceeded consensus estimates.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payrolls rose 227,000 in November.

MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said that prior months’ employment figures were also revised upward by a cumulative 56,000 jobs, but noted the BLS report overall shows more softening in the labor market. “The unemployment rate is now above 4.2%, the household survey again showed a large drop in employment, and more households reported spells of long-term unemployment,” he said. “Per the JOLTS results from October, the hiring rate continues to decline. While we are not seeing a pickup in layoffs, new entrants and individuals who lose jobs are having a more difficult time regaining employment.”

Fratantoni noted payroll gains continue to be concentrated in just a few sectors, such as government, health care and leisure and hospitality. Wage growth remained steady at 4% on an annual basis.

“Fed officials have pointed to their ‘data dependence’ when it comes to decisions about future rate cuts,” Fratantoni said. “These data support a cut at the December meeting, and MBA forecasts that the Fed will continue to reduce short-term rates in 2025, although they are likely to slow the pace of cuts.”