MBA Study: Modest Growth Anticipated in Home Equity Lending

Home equity loan debt outstanding and borrower utilization rates declined in 2018, and mortgage lenders anticipate mixed activity this year and only modest increases in originations in 2020, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported yesterday.

The MBA inaugural 2019 Home Equity Lending Study on lending and servicing of open-ended home equity lines of credit and closed-end home equity loans said reported lenders expect HELOC annual originations to drop by 3.8 percent in 2019, but grow by 3.4 percent in 2020. Annual originations of HE Loans are forecasted to grow by 7.8 percent in 2019 and by 8.4 percent in 2020.

“Many households are not tapping the equity in their homes, despite the significant rise in home equity since the Great Recession, wage growth and low unemployment,” said Marina Walsh, MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis.

Walsh said the study found lenders do not anticipate a significant ramp-up in activity through 2020 because of various challenges, including other viable consumer financing alternatives, pricing pressures and competition and rising costs. “Furthermore, changing borrower sentiment and confusion over tax deductibility appear to have contributed to lackluster lending activity in recent years, as well as muted expectations going forward,” she said.

Additional findings from the study, which covers data through December 31, 2018:

HELOCs
–Debt outstanding for HELOCs dropped by 2 percent from beginning to end-of-year 2018, as borrower utilization rates declined.

–HELOC utilization rates (dollar volume of outstandings compared to maximum credit facility) decreased from 2016-2018, when examining the rates across origination vintage year cohorts for 2016, 2017 and 2018. For example, average utilization nine months after origination was 46 percent for 2016, 45 percent for 2017 and 43 percent for 2018.

–For all active accounts irrespective of origination year, average HELOC utilization was 46 percent in 2018. The percentage of HELOC accounts with no outstanding balance as of year-end 2018 was 27 percent.

–In 2019, lenders of HELOCs expect annual originations to drop by 3.8 percent, but grow by 3.4 percent in 2020. HELOC debt outstanding on a year-over-year basis are expected to drop by 2.9 percent this year and by 2.1 percent in 2020.

HE Loans
–Home equity loan debt outstanding dropped by 5 percent from the beginning to the end of 2018. As the average portfolio aged–76 percent of accounts were over three years old in 2018–newer, higher-balance originations were not fully replenishing payoffs and amortization.

–Nonetheless, lenders of home equity loans expect annual originations to grow by 7.8 percent in 2019 and by 8.4 percent in 2020. Home equity loan debt outstanding is expected to increase 2.0 percent in 2019 and remain flat in 2020.

The MBA study on Home Equity Lending for open-ended HELOCs and closed-end home equity loans too place this past spring. MBA collected data from 27 member companies–including large banks, community banks and independent mortgage companies–representing $64.7 billion in originations volume for 2018, $517.4 billion in maximum credit extended to borrowers as of December 31, 2018, and $249.7 billion in outstanding borrowings as of December 31, 2018. The report includes benchmarking data such as volume and product mixes, utilization rates, operational metrics and growth expectations.

The report can also be purchased on MBA’s website by visiting www.mba.org/heloc.