MBA Newslinks Archive

“Credit supply declined across the board in August, even as mortgage rates fell and application activity picked up, particularly for refinances. Last month’s decrease was the largest since December 2018, and also the first tightening we have seen for conventional loans all year. We anticipate some weakening of the job market in the year ahead as economic growth cools. It’s possible some lenders may be tightening credit in expectation of a slowdown.”–Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.

“Mortgages rates continued to decline over the holiday-shortened week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing five basis points and remaining near three-year lowsRefinances were essentially unchanged, up just 0.4 percent, but August overall was the strongest month of activity so far in 2019.”–Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.

“The low interest rate environment, coupled with still strong demand for commercial and multifamily assets, has pushed property values higher and increased demand for mortgages. At the beginning of the year, many economists, investors and others anticipated long-terms rates would currently be in the 3 percent range and rising–potentially putting pressure on property values and decreasing demand for debt. Instead, the 10-year Treasury yield is at approximately 1.5 percent, and many market participants are planning for rates to remain ‘lower for longer.’ The result is heightened demand and higher volumes.”–MBA Vice President for Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell.

“As expected, given the global slowdown in economic growth, and increasing signs of a slowing in the pace of U.S growth, we are seeing job gains cool down a bit. August’s 130,000 increase in jobs was somewhat supported by federal government hires for the decennial Census, with private growth of only 96,000 jobs. We expect that job growth will continue to wane, and that there will be some upward pressure on the unemployment rate over the next year.”–Mike Fratantoni, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association.

“We are gratified that the reports reflect many of the important priorities that MBA has long recommended, including protecting taxpayers from future bailouts, an explicit government guarantee on qualified mortgage-backed securities for single-family and multifamily loans, increased competition and consumer choice via potential additional guarantors and ensuring a level playing field for lenders of all sizes and business models. The reports recognize the need to better coordinate the roles of FHA and the GSEs. Such coordination must preserve affordable financing options for a wide range of borrowers and reflect the vital role FHA plays in the larger housing finance system.”–MBA President and CEO Robert Broeksmit, CMB, on the Trump Administration’s proposal for GSE reform.

“We’ve seen interest rates for Millennials drop consistently throughout 2019, but from April through June, the refinance market was essentially flat. In the months leading up to July, consumers believed that rates would continue to decrease, and they were correct. Now, Millennials are reaping the rewards and locking in historically low rates.”–Joe Tyrrell, chief operating officer with Ellie Mae, Pleasanton, Calif.

“Many households are not tapping the equity in their homes, despite the significant rise in home equity since the Great Recession, wage growth and low unemployment.”–Marina Walsh, MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis.

“The home-buying process is such a substantial financial event, and because most borrowers are confused about the ins and outs of the process, it’s natural for them to lean on the wisdom of others. With so many lender and product choices and no easy way to sift through them, tapping a trusted friend, colleague or professional advisor can help to quickly narrow the field and make the decision more manageable.”–MortgageSAT Director Mike Seminari.

“Taken together, these trends suggest that there may be a fundamental shift in the way that young households are approaching first-time home purchases, such as an increased willingness to purchase homes individually or with unmarried partners.”–Jonathan Spader, co-author of a Harvard University study on first-time home buying demographics.

“With anticipated increases in prepayment activity, we saw hits to servicing profitability resulting from mortgage servicing right markdowns and amortization. Nonetheless, the profitability on the production side of the business generally outweighed servicing losses.”–MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis Marina Walsh.