Futures Markets Bet on an Interest Rate Increase

March 24, 2026

Axios, March 24, 2026-Neil Irwin
For two years now, the Federal Reserve policy discussion has been all about interest rate cuts: when they’ll arrive, how big, how many. The Iran war and accompanying energy price shock have flipped the script.

Futures markets now price in meaningful odds that the Fed’s next move will be an interest rate increase.