Chart of the Week: Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates, Range Since 1996

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Commercial Delinquency Report, commercial mortgage delinquency rates were mixed across investor groups in the fourth quarter of 2025. MBA’s analysis, which covers commercial banks and thrifts, CMBS, life insurance companies, and government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, found that most capital sources experienced modest improvements, while others saw slight increases or remain unchanged. Together, these groups account for more than 80 percent of outstanding commercial mortgage debt, offering a comprehensive view of market performance.

While elevated stress in CMBS continues to reflect ongoing challenges in certain property sectors, particularly office properties, the overall picture points to steady loan performance across much of the market. Delinquencies for Fannie Mae loans increased for the second straight quarter and are now above the midpoint of their historical range going back to 1996. While elevated stress in CMBS continues to reflect ongoing challenges in certain property sectors, overall loan performance remains resilient. In 2026, investors will be closely watching how refinancing pressures and economic conditions shape credit performance across capital sources.

Overall, the data suggests that while pockets of stress remain, most segments of the commercial mortgage market continue to demonstrate resilience.

Reggie Booker (rbooker@mba.org)