The GSE Data Is Public. What the GSE Historical Data Reveals About Credit Score Performance. (Sponsored by FICO)

Julie May is Vice President and General Manager of B2B Scores at FICO.

On July 1, 2026, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSEs) released the historical loan-level datasets the mortgage industry has been anticipating: FICO® Score 10T performance data spanning more than 12 years from April 2013 through September 2025. These datasets now include mortgage loan-level performance data for Classic FICO® Score, FICO® Score 10T, and VantageScore 4.0 — enabling a direct comparison on the same loans.

With the data now publicly available, any lender, investor, or industry stakeholder can download the files and see the results firsthand. As we’ve covered in prior articles, this release is a major next step for the mortgage industry’s credit score modernization. Here’s what the data shows.

The Findings

Global actuarial firm Milliman analyzed the newly released, publicly available GSE data, applying the same three statistical measures specified in the Joint Enterprise Credit Score Solicitation — the criteria Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac themselves established for evaluating credit score models:

• K-S Statistic: overall ability to rank-order borrowers by default risk
• Bottom Decile Lift: how well the score identifies the highest-risk borrowers
• Gini Coefficient: overall predictive power across the full score distribution

FICO® Score 10T outperformed on all three measures, across every origination year studied, and across different borrower profiles. The key numbers:

• The K-S statistic improvement is approximately 5% across non-COVID origination years and over 6% across all years in the dataset
• Predictive improvement is more pronounced (over 8%) for the most recent origination vintages, the years with the highest default rates
• For first-time homebuyers, FICO® Score 10T’s predictive lift exceeds 10%

Nearly 50 million loans were analyzed from more than 12 years of originations, spanning multiple economic cycles. The findings are consistent throughout: FICO® Score 10T is the most predictive credit score available for the conforming mortgage market.

One point worth noting: some have argued that a competitor score’s ability to generate scores for thin-file or previously unscored consumers represents a data advantage. The GSE dataset addresses this directly — it evaluates each score on the same loans, the same borrowers, and the same outcomes. The question it answers is which score better predicts default for the population where both scores apply. On that question, the results are clear: FICO® Score 10T.

What This Means for Lenders

A consistent improvement in predictive accuracy compounds across thousands of mortgage decisions. FICO® Score 10T can expand mortgage approval rates by up to 5% without adding incremental risk relative to Classic FICO® Score or reduce delinquency rates by up to 17% for new originations. For lenders focused on responsible growth — more qualified approvals, stronger portfolio performance — that combination is directly relevant. For the secondary market, the consistency of a more predictive score is what keeps the system liquid and stable.

The GSE data confirms the advantage extends especially to first-time homebuyers, a population that carries meaningfully higher default risk and where score accuracy is critical to providing a strong foundation for long-term financial success. FICO® Score 10T incorporates trended credit data and reported rental payment history without using mortgage-specific variables that disadvantage applicants who have not previously owned a home.

For Lenders Ready to Act Now

For institutions looking to evaluate FICO® Score 10T against their own loan portfolio ahead of broader GSE implementation, three programs make that accessible now:

• The FICO® Score 10T Free Access Program provides FICO® Score 10T at no cost alongside Classic FICO® Score, enabling side-by-side testing on live originations without adding to credit data spend.
• The FICO® Archive Score Program offers mortgage lenders up to two million free archive FICO® Scores on depersonalized historical consumer credit data for retrospective portfolio testing.
• The FICO® Mortgage Direct License Program offers a path to production deployment for lenders ready to move FICO® Score 10T into their origination process.

To learn more, visit the FICO® Score 10T Migration Resource Center or contact FICO’s Mortgage and Capital Markets team directly.

Download the Data and Run the Analysis Yourself

The GSE files are available directly:

Fannie Mae: https://historicalcreditscores.fanniemae.com

Freddie Mac: https://sf.freddiemac.com/general/credit-score-models

For lenders and analysts conducting their own evaluation, credible analysis requires attention to a few key methodological considerations — including truncation effects and outcome window consistency — that can meaningfully shape results. FICO has published a guide specifically to help analysts work with these datasets rigorously: Analyzing the GSE Historical Data: Key Considerations in the Evaluation of Credit Scores.

Looking Ahead

The release of this data is the milestone the industry asked for. The analysis has been done — independently, rigorously, and on publicly verifiable data. FICO® Score 10T is the most predictive credit score available for the conforming mortgage market.

The case for full FICO® Score 10T acceptance at the GSEs is now publicly verifiable by any market participant. We encourage the industry to act on it.

We look forward to supporting lenders, investors, and other stakeholders as they put this data to work.