S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Reports 1.4% Annual Gain

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The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.4% annual gain for November, in line with the previous month.

Nicholas Godec, head of fixed-income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said November’s results confirm that the housing market has entered a period of “tepid” growth. “National home prices were only 1.4% higher than a year ago, unchanged from October’s annual pace and still near the weakest showing since mid-2023,” he added. “This subdued price growth is less than half of the 3.7% annual price increase notched in November 2024.”

The report said consumer inflation cooled to 2.7%, dipping below 3% for the first time since August and aligning with its average pace over the prior 12 months. But home price growth still trails inflation by roughly 1.3 percentage points, meaning real home values have effectively edged down over the past year.

“High mortgage rates continue to cast a long shadow over housing,” Godec concluded. “Thirty-year loan rates hovered in the mid-6% range during November, weighing on affordability even as they eased slightly from recent peaks. This elevated financing cost continues to cap home price growth. Inflation has erased most nominal gains, leaving home values essentially flat in real terms.”

The report said regional divergence persist: Midwestern and Northeastern markets led by Chicago (+5.7%) and New York (+5.0%) posted gains, while Sun Belt cities including Tampa (–3.9%), Phoenix (–1.4%), Dallas (–1.4%), and Miami (–1.0%) saw declines.