Leading Economic Indicators Edge Up in July

The Conference Board, New York, reported its index of leading economic indicators increased by 0.2% in July to 99.5. As a result, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive, to an increase of 0.2% between January and July 2026, a sharp reversal from its 1.3% contraction over the previous six months.

“The Leading Index for the U.S. ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, an economic think tank. “Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index. With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead.”

Zabinska-La Monica said the U.S. economy is likely to keep expanding, “but growth is expected to be driven by business investments in AI, while the higher cost of living may reduce consumer spending, especially by lower- and middle-income households. Consequently, The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.”

The Conference Board also tracks lagging economic indicators, such as unemployment and GDP, that show past economic changes rather than forecasting the future. This index also increased by 0.2% in July to 120.4. “Despite the month-over-month increase, the level of the index was still below the preliminary June level of 120.5 due to downward revisions from April to June 2026,” The Conference Board said. “The [lagging indicator index] was up 0.8% between January and July 2026, doubling its 0.4% growth over the prior six months (July 2025 to January 2026).”