Harvard JCHS: Slow but Steady Growth for Remodeling

Chart (below) courtesy of the Remodeling Futures Program at the Joint Center for Housing Studies
of Harvard University. Cover illustration of people remodeling courtesy of Blue Bird/pexels.com.

Year-over-year spending on home renovation and repair will likely rise by 2.4% in early 2026, the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University forecasts.

The Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity released by the Remodeling Futures Program at the center calculated that rate will likely ease to 1.9% in the third quarter of next year.

“Upward trends in both remodeling permit activity and single-family home sales suggest that demand for home improvement will remain stable in the coming year,” said Rachel Bogardus Drew, director of the center’s Remodeling Futures Program. She noted that despite the modest pace of growth, total homeowner remodeling spending could reach $524 billion in early 2026, a new record.

Chris Herbert, managing director of the center, added that if the housing market begins to show signs of momentum, remodeling could be poised for stronger growth in 2027. “However, sluggish housing starts and uncertainty in the broader economy, which are factors in predicting remodeling expenditures, are creating headwinds to larger gains in renovation and repair spending.”

The center’s Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry.