MBA Chart of the Week: Refinance-Driven Growth in CRE Mortgage Originations

Sources: MBA Loan Maturities and Quarterly Originations Index

This week’s Chart of the Week focuses on trends in commercial and multifamily originations, which saw a 36 percent increase year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025. The blue bars highlight that 2023-2025 were years with large volumes of scheduled maturities that are now overlapping with significant growth in originations (orange line). It begs the question: Is a refinance boom in CRE driving the increase in originations in 2025?

MBA reports annual estimates of scheduled loan maturities, and our analysis shows how loan maturities have been pushed out over time likely through extensions and loan modifications. Given the strong growth in originations in 2025, this suggests that market fundamentals may be more conducive to refinance opportunities (as opposed to extend-and-pretend) in the current environment, driving up originations.

To the extent that refinancing is playing a role in origination growth, that activity is likely to continue in 2025 and into 2026 given that the year-to-date activity represents deals that closed prior to recent rate cut announcements by the Federal Reserve. As of October 2025, MBA’s CREF forecast estimates a 29 percent increase in originations in 2025 and a 27 percent increase in originations in 2026. This is consistent with anecdotal evidence from MBA member institutions that are reporting strong pipelines of origination activity through the end of 2025 and into 2026.

To hear more about economic trends in the CRE market, join us at MBA’s Accounting and Financial Management Conference in Phoenix, Ariz., on November 19-21, 2025. MBA’s expert economics team will provide updates on the CRE market and the overall economic environment.

– Judith Ricks, Ph.D. (jricks@mba.org)

Figure notes: Scheduled maturities for 2023-2025 are reported as MBA’s estimates of scheduled maturities based on information we receive from the prior year’s end. For example, 2023 scheduled maturities are based on reporting at year-end in 2022. Scheduled maturities in 2026 are based on year-end reporting for 2024, which is estimated two years out. The Originations Index is annualized by averaging over the year for 2023 and 2024 and averaged over the first three quarters in 2025.