Peak Homebody Era is Pummeling the Housing Market

Odeta Kushi is deputy chief economist at First American, Santa Ana, Calif.

Existing-home sales are off to a disappointing start this year, with sales barely breaking above the four million seasonally adjusted annualized level. In the housing market, the buyer and the seller are often the same person—the existing homeowner. To buy a home, you typically need to sell the one you already own. But many homeowners are choosing to stay put, and that decision is pummeling home sales.

Peak Homebody Era is Here
According to analysis of data from First American Data & Analytics, the median tenure—the length of time someone stays in their home—was relatively stable at around four years in the early 2000s, just before the housing market crash. But that changed after the Great Financial Crisis. Median tenure steadily increased, reaching a pre-pandemic peak of 8.5 years in 2016. During the pandemic, it dipped slightly, only to surge again starting in 2022, hitting a record high of nearly nine years in April 2025. Historically, that is a long time to stay in one home—and it raises critical questions for the housing market – what’s driving this trend, and what does it mean for home sales?

Why are we Increasingly a Nation of Homebodies?
The long-term average for tenure in the U.S. is about six years, so today’s nearly nine-year average is well above normal. That matters because there is a strong relationship between tenure and sales—the longer people stay put, the fewer homes hit the market. Let’s breakdown the key factors fueling rising tenure, and why they continue to dampen sales.

Mortgage Rates and the Lock-In Effect: The rate lock-in effect is arguably the biggest driver of rising tenure today. Many homeowners refinanced during the pandemic and are now sitting on ultra-low mortgage rates—just over 4 percent on average. With current market rates hovering near 7 percent, moving means trading a low monthly payment for a significantly higher one. This financial disincentive has frozen many would-be sellers in place, slowing the churn of existing-home sales.

Seniors Aging in Place: More homeowners are aging in place than ever before. A Freddie Mac study found that, had older Americans aged out of their homes at the same rate as previous generations, an additional 1.6 million homes would have come to market by 2018. Advances in health care and home technology have made staying put easier for seniors, reducing housing turnover and keeping more homes off the market.

Historically Low Supply Means Less Mobility: The fear of not being able to find something to buy is a powerful deterrent. While inventory has improved from pandemic-era lows, it’s still well below what’s needed to meet demand. A homeowner who wants to move can’t sell unless they can also buy, and persistent housing shortages make that a risky proposition, resulting in fewer sales.

Tight Credit standards: When it’s harder to get a mortgage, it’s harder to move. Mortgage credit availability remains historically tight according to MBA mortgage credit availability data, even though conditions have eased somewhat since 2023. For current homeowners, the difficulty of securing financing for a new home can be enough reason to stay put—and that suppresses sales.

Low Foreclosure Rates: Foreclosures reduce tenure by necessity. When homeowners lose their homes, they move. Today, foreclosure rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels. While that’s a positive sign for household financial health, it also means fewer homes cycling back into the for-sale pool.

Where Are People Staying the Longest?
Tenure length trends vary by market. In places like San Jose and San Diego, median tenure lengths are 16 and 15 years, respectively. Six of the top 10 markets with the highest tenure lengths are in California, partly due to Proposition 13, which caps property tax increases and creates a strong financial incentive to stay put. Conversely, markets like Birmingham, Ala. and Virginia Beach, Va. see median tenures closer to five-six years, where relatively lower home prices and less tax incentive to stay spur more mobility and more sales activity.

When Will the Homebody Era End?
While each homeowner’s decision to sell is personal, these broader market dynamics are keeping Americans in their homes longer than ever before. According to the latest February SCE Housing Survey, 43 percent of homeowners plan to stay in their current home for more than 10 years. There is one demographic shift, however, that could slowly unwind the homebody era: baby boomers aging out of homeownership. More than 40 percent of existing homes are owned by boomers, and the number of Americans aged 80 and older is expected to nearly double by 2040. As more of this generation transitions out of homeownership, these homes will gradually return to the market, boosting existing-home supply and potentially lifting sales.

The unprecedented increase in homeowner tenure is a defining feature of today’s sluggish housing market. It reflects a convergence of economic, demographic, and policy factors—from the mortgage rate lock-in effect and aging in place to limited inventory and tight credit. And it has a real, measurable effect — fewer existing homes for sale and fewer existing-home sales overall. Until the forces fueling the homebody era unwind, existing-home sales will struggle to reach their potential.

(Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect policies of the Mortgage Bankers Association, nor do they connote an MBA endorsement of a specific company, product or service. MBA NewsLink welcomes submissions from member firms. Inquiries can be sent to Editor Michael Tucker or Editorial Manager Anneliese Mahoney.)