LightBox Says CRE Activity Surged in February Despite Federal Policy Shifts
LightBox, Irvine, Calif. reported a sharp rise in its February commercial real estate activity Index, which climbed to 96.1, up from 80.7 in January and 75.8 a year ago.
The data firm said this 19% month-over-month and 27% year-over-year increase signals a continued rebound in CRE activity, even as the market navigates shifting federal policies and economic uncertainty.
“February’s sharp rise underscores the resilience of CRE deal-making, despite an evolving policy landscape and broader economic uncertainty,” said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. “Investors and lenders are navigating selective opportunities as they weigh the impact of interest rate policy, government budget changes, and tariff shifts.”
The LightBox CRE Activity Index tracks commercial property listings, environmental due diligence (Phase I Environmental Site Assessment volume) and valuation activity.
LightBox said the 20-point year-over-year gain suggests a more active lending and investment environment, approaching the September 2024 high of 98.2—back then a surge fueled by the Federal Reserve’s 50-basis-point rate cut. “This growth reflects a strengthening market following the late-2024 slowdown, attributable to post-election volatility and seasonal trends.”
The report said capital is still flowing to well-located assets including high-quality offices, data centers, shopping centers and multifamily investments in growth markets.
The office sector appears to be stabilizing, with sales up 20% in early 2025. “Leasing growth has neared 30% in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago, with even stronger gains in Dallas, Seattle, and Atlanta,” LightBox said. “Return-to-office mandates, led by firms like JPMorgan Chase, are fueling demand as occupiers gain confidence in long-term commitments. Meanwhile, apartment transactions remained strong in February, with capital targeting markets poised for rent growth potential.”
While February’s activity signaled strong momentum in lending and investment activity, market sentiment is turning more cautious as concerns over government job cuts and shifting tariff policies take hold, said Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox. “Rising economic and political uncertainty is creating headwinds for the market,” she said. “The next few months will be critical–if economic barometers on inflation or the labor market raise recessionary fears, we could see a decline in market confidence that could, in turn, dampen the strong leasing and investment activity that we’ve seen so far this year.”
