Delayed GDP Report Finds 4.3% Growth in 3Q

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Tuesday.

In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.8%, the bureau said.

(Due to the recent government shutdown, the bureau’s initial report for the third quarter of 2025 replaced the release of the advance estimate originally scheduled for October 30 and the second estimate originally scheduled for November 26.)

In its statement, the bureau said the increase in real GDP “reflected increases in consumer spending, exports and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment.”

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased during the quarter.

MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said the initial read on third-quarter GDP growth showed an economy that was growing faster than expected. “Solid consumer spending growth of 3.5% and an improvement in the trade balance were the primary contributors to this growth,” he noted. “Both residential investment and non-residential structures investment decreased during the quarter, as builders and developers pulled back in the face of elevated inventories and vacancy rates and stagnant rents and home prices.”

The inflation measures captured in this report, including the PCE index, showed a pickup from Q2, with the important core PCE metric increasing to 2.9%, Fratantoni said. 

“These data, along with the recently released employment and CPI metrics, show an economy that is growing, but unevenly, and one where inflation is still running well above the FOMC’s target,” Fratantoni noted. “We forecast that the FOMC will be on hold at its January meeting, and will likely cut rates just once more next year.”

The next government GDP data release is scheduled for Jan. 22, 2026.