LightBox: CRE Index Sees Mild Seasonal Dip, Positioned for 2026 Rebound
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LightBox, Shelton, Conn., released its activity index for November, finding that it dipped from 106.2 to 99.4 on a monthly basis. However, that 6% decline is far milder than the usual 14% drop between October and November.
It’s also significantly above last year’s November reading of 83.3, recorded during a election-driven slowdown.
“November’s dip is more about seasonality than stress and was far softer than normal for this time of year,” said Manus Clancy, head of Data Strategy at LightBox. “With activity still well above last year’s levels, the Index points to market moving ahead with measured confidence.”
There were 1,214 transactions in November, totaling $23.8 billion.
Broken down by transaction type, multifamily (21.9%), retail (20.4%), office (19.8%) and industrial (18.8%) made up roughly 81% of all deals in the month.
November’s pre-transaction indicators point toward a likely busy start to 2026. Listings were up 37% year-over-year, and environmental due diligence volumes grew 12% year-over-year. Moreover, appraisal activity was stable for the 11th straight month, with lender-driven appraisals up 5% month-over-month and 7% year-over-year.
“The CRE market is transitioning from volatility to a more orderly environment,” added Dianne Crocker, research director at LightBox. “Capital is returning to the table, refinancing demand is strengthening, and key sectors are showing clearer signs of stabilization. November’s reading suggests a market preparing for more active deployment in 2026.”
