Fitch Forecast: Global Housing Prices to Rise on Supply Shortages

Home prices will likely rise modestly in 2026 on persistent supply shortages and steady, though softening demand, Fitch Ratings said in its annual global housing and mortgage forecast.

However, performance risks are increasing amid slower global growth, real income erosion and heightened macro and geopolitical uncertainty, Fitch said in its Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook 2026 (subscription).

Fitch called supply constraints “entrenched” across both advanced and emerging markets, driven by high land, labor and material costs. Lengthy permitting or regulatory factors support prices in Brazil, Canada, Germany, Mexico, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK. “Policy efforts in Spain and Mexico may modestly lift new supply but are unlikely to close gaps in the near term,” the report said. “Australia’s approvals remain below household-formation needs amid strong migration and historically low average household size, keeping vacancies tight and prices supported.”

Fitch noted it expects the strongest 2026 home price gains to be in Spain (8%-10%) due to robust demand from immigration and non-residents, followed by Mexico (7%-8%) and Brazil (5%-7%). Australia and the Netherlands should see solid, albeit slower, growth, while Germany continues gradual appreciation on supply limits and stable affordability.

France and the U.S. are likely to see price stagnation in 2026, with policy uncertainty affecting consumer sentiment and home purchase decisions. “France may see declines in 2027, but we expect any price falls in the US to bottom out in 2026,” the report said.