Colliers Sees CRE Momentum
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Colliers, Seattle, said the commercial real estate market enters 2026 with “renewed momentum” as stabilizing fundamentals, easing financial conditions, strengthening occupier demand and rising investor confidence set the stage for a long-awaited reset.
Steig Seaward, senior director of national research at Colliers, predicted that 2026 will mark a turning point for U.S. commercial real estate. “After years of navigating volatility, the industry is entering a period defined by greater clarity, confidence and opportunity,” he said. “Investor sentiment is strengthening, occupier demand is broadening and disciplined development is reshaping supply. Together these dynamics signal not just recovery, but the beginning of a more resilient and adaptive cycle that positions the sector for long-term growth.”
Commercial real estate currently has stronger fundamentals and a healthier supply-demand balance across property types than in recent years, the firm said in its 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook, titled Stability Through Uncertainty.
“After several years of volatility driven by inflation, policy shifts and evolving workforce dynamics, the sector is poised for more consistent growth,” the report said.
Takeaways from the outlook include:
Capital Markets Rebound: Market conditions are improving, as pricing stabilizes, investors return, and transaction volume is set to grow 15 – 20% in 2026.
Office Bottoming Out: Vacancy is expected to fall from its peak in 2025 to below 18% by the end of 2026, driven by rising demand and the removal of obsolete inventory as it is converted to other uses.
Industrial Moves Toward Equilibrium: Construction is down 62% since 2022, while demand rises across logistics, manufacturing, data centers and R&D. Vacancy is likely to peak near 7.6%, indicating a move toward equilibrium.
Retail Resilience: Disciplined development and strong tenant expansion activity keep supply tight; 2026 construction is anticipated to drop 37%, supporting ~1.5% rent growth, Colliers said.
Multifamily Momentum: Strong renter demand and high home prices should drive an occupancy gain in 2026, setting the stage for improving rent growth in 2027 and 2028.
Data Centers Surge Amid AI Boom: Driven by rapid enterprise AI adoption, vacancies remain near historic lows as power constraints and community opposition slow the pace of new development.
Hospitality Sees Upscale Demand: High-income travelers drive luxury and upscale demand. Supply is anticipated to grow modestly (1.3%) despite rising operational costs.
