Chart of the Week: Composition of Seriously Delinquent Loans by Origination Year
(Source: MBA’s National Delinquency Survey, www.mba.org/nds)
According to the latest results from MBA’s National Delinquency Survey (NDS), the delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased slightly to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.93 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2025. The delinquency rate was down 11 basis points from the first quarter of 2025 and down 4 basis points from one year ago.
While overall mortgage delinquencies were relatively flat compared to last year, earlier-stage delinquencies declined while serious delinquencies – those loans 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure – increased.
This Chart of the Week takes a deeper look at these seriously delinquent loans by the origination year of the loans and across the three major product types: conventional, FHA, and VA. For all loans, the seriously delinquent rate in the second quarter of 2025 was 1.57 percent, 14 basis points higher than last year. Of the origination year cohorts, those aged loans from 2007 and prior made up the highest percentage of the seriously delinquent loans at 30 percent. This was largely driven by the weighting of conventional loans; 45 percent of conventional seriously delinquent loans were from origination years 2007 and prior, perhaps vestiges of the subprime era.
By contrast, the composition of seriously delinquent loans for FHA and VA skews to the more recent origination vintages. Sixty percent of FHA’s seriously delinquent loans and 75 percent of VA’s seriously delinquent loans were originated in 2018 or later. Moreover, the number of seriously delinquent loans originated in 2022 or later is increasing, despite these loans being relatively new. Homeowners with government loans originated in 2022 or later may be experiencing the impact of stretched affordability from higher interest payments or other payment shocks.
— Marina B Walsh, CMB mwalsh@mba.org
