S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Finds Shifting Market

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June’s housing price trend continues a “decisive shift” in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year–the slowest pace since Summer 2023–according to the latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index.

Nicholas Godec, head of fixed-income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, noted what makes this shift particularly noteworthy is the underlying pattern: “The modest 1.9% annual gain masks significant volatility, with the first half of the period showing declining prices (-0.6%) that were more than offset by a 2.5% surge in the most recent six months, suggesting the housing market experienced a meaningful inflection point around the start of 2025,” he said.

Godec said geographic divergence has become the housing market’s defining characteristic. “New York’s 7.0% annual gain stands as a stark outlier, leading all markets by a wide margin, followed by Chicago (6.1%) and Cleveland (4.5%).” This represents a complete reversal of pandemic-era patterns, where traditional industrial centers now outpace former darlings like Phoenix (-0.1%), Tampa (-2.4%), and Dallas (-1.0%), he added.

“For the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation,” Godec observed. “From June 2024 to June 2025, the Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7%, substantially outpacing the 1.9% gain in national home prices. This reversal is historically significant: During the pandemic surge, home values were climbing at double-digit annual rates that far exceeded inflation, building substantial real wealth for homeowners. Now, American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”