LightBox: CRE Index Posts Strongest Reading Since 2022, but Outlook Uncertain
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LightBox, New York, reported its Commercial Real Estate Activity Index rose sharply in March to 104.4, the highest level since June 2022 and only the second triple-digit reading in nearly three years.
The 4.7% month-over-month and 25.2% year-over-year gains point to growing momentum in the CRE sector.
But just days after March ended, the market was hit with a fresh wave of uncertainty spurred by the announcement and subsequent delay of sweeping new tariffs, which injected renewed volatility into an already uneven economic environment.
“While volatility rattled other parts of the market, March’s index highlights the commercial real estate sector’s resilience,” LightBox Head of Data Strategy Manus Clancy said. “Rising listings and consistent lender activity show that investors found opportunities, even in this uncertain economic environment.”
The LightBox CRE Activity Index measures national activity across commercial property listings, environmental due diligence, and appraisals. The index is normalized to account for variations in the number of business days per month to provide a consistent measure of market trends.
March’s triple-digit index reading signals increasing transactional velocity across asset types and geographies. Each of the three core metrics behind the index indicate growth:
Property listings jumped 56% year-over-year, more than double where they were at year-end 2024.
Phase I environmental site assessments (typically conducted prior to major CRE loans or transactions) rose 3% year-over-year and a more significant 12% over February volume.
Lender-driven commercial appraisal awards climbed 6% year-over-year and increased by 5% from February. While equities declined and the 10-year Treasury yield swung in March, LightBox suggested the CRE market may be “decoupling” from broader market volatility, buoyed by investor interest in income-producing assets and distressed opportunities.
