Housing and the 2024 Election: Panelists Weigh In With Predictions, Priorities
(From left: Bob Broeksmit, David Dworkin, Edward Pinto and Ted Tozer)
WASHINGTON, D.C.–“Housing is on the agenda” this election cycle, said Mortgage Bankers Association President and CEO Bob Broeksmit, CMB, while moderating a panel on what November’s results may mean for the industry.
As both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump look to tackle America’s housing issues, one key pain point is supply. The panel, appearing at MBA’s Compliance and Risk Management Conference Sept. 23, was quick to weigh in.
“We are at least 3 million short of where we need to be,” noted David Dworkin, President and CEO of the National Housing Conference.
Edward Pinto, Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the AEI Housing Center at the American Enterprise Institute, argued some of the issues related to supply aren’t a question for the federal government at all, and may need to be addressed at the state and local level.
“Our research shows that’s largely due to, first of all, the local and state land use and zoning regulations that make it very difficult to build new housing,” Pinto said.
Broeksmit noted that there’s often local pushback regarding zoning changes, but Pinto said there’s hope on that front, with legislation passed recently in a number of states and localities.
“Twenty screaming local neighbors are going to have a big impact, unless there are 20 registered nurses there who cannot find a place to live, and you’ve got 20 employers who can’t attract [talent],” Dworkin said. “Employers in particular are the missing equation in this. They’ve got to show up and tell these commissioners ‘hey, wait a minute, I can’t expand unless you allow this housing.’ ”
In terms of supply, there’s another clear question: Where can we build more housing? The panelists highlighted some options that have been discussed over the course of the election season thus far.
“One is a 10-year plan to auction off surplus federal lands for new market rate on construction,” Pinto said. “It could add 200,000 homes a year with that amount of land.”
As an example, Pinto said that the federal government owns more than 70% of the land in Utah. Freeing up just a tiny portion of that is quite a bit of acreage.
“Most of it, in terms of housing development, are going to be one-off packages in metro areas,” Dworkin added. “What we see is often land that was used for obsolete federal buildings.”
However, Dworkin cautioned that there’s a need to ensure that the land is sold at a price-point that leads to housing that is affordable.
Ted Tozer, Senior Fellow at the Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center, said that–for whoever wins in November–a good idea would be to bring home builders to the table to talk about what issues they’re seeing.
“What are the issues? What’s causing supply issues?” he suggested. “What’s going on in local communities? And what can we do? Do we need to support infrastructure spending for expansion of sewer systems, school systems, all that kind of stuff? Where are the impediments?”
Looking toward some of the other proposals from the campaigns, the panelists touched on Harris’ plan for down payment assistance.
Dworkin said that depending on how it’s rolled out, “it’s going to be really difficult for anyone to thread the needle on,” warning that applying it as a tax credit could be inflationary, and other options may have smaller impacts or drag more on the budget.
Tozer took a different approach on the topic, noting that instead of providing down payment assistance, some sort of option or program for a 0% down payment may be worth exploring. Pinto disagreed–arguing 0% down payments have been tried in the past, and they didn’t go well.
Other questions that are floating around in terms of the electoral outcome include potential GSE reform, tax policies, other regulatory snafus and general economic concerns like inflation, the panelists said.
Ultimately, no matter who wins, “elections have consequences,” Broeksmit noted. As for how those will play out when it comes to the housing industry–well, that’s a question for November.
