Zelman & Associates: October Single-Family Rental Results Soft

(Image courtesy of Zelman & Associates; Breakout image courtesy of Max Vakhtbovycn/pexels.com)

Zelman & Associates, a Walker & Dunlop company, New York, released its single-family rental survey for October, finding that the market saw lackluster results across multiple metrics.

Leasable occupancy fell by 30 basis points sequentially to 95.5%, more severe than typical seasonality. The seasonally adjusted number fell 20 basis points to 95.8%, among the lowest levels of the past 10 years.

October was just the ninth month since 2015 in which occupancy didn’t exceed 96%.

Total occupancy did inch up by 10 basis points to 91.8%, but that’s still historically very low. There is some better news though–the rate has increased sequentially for two months, and the year-over-year increase is the first one since July 2023.

Blended rent growth was fairly flat sequentially at 2.3%. Seasonally adjusted, it fell for the second consecutive month to the lowest level since early-pandemic 2020.

Renewal rent growth grew 10 basis points from September to 2.9%. The seasonally adjusted measure was 3.1%, on the higher end of the range seen over the past six months.

New move-in rent growth decelerated below 1% for the first time since 2011, when Zelman & Associates began compiling the survey. It fell 80 basis points sequentially in October to 0.5%.

Zelman & Associates pointed to a combination of decelerating wages, rising single-family supply and high multifamily deliveries as affecting the number.

The days-on-market metric worsened in the month. Vacant homes leased in October were available for 38 days on average, up five days from September. The seasonally adjusted measure hit the highest level since July.

Annualized turnover was 26% in October, down on a year-over-year basis for the third month in a row. The metric saw the first time in two years with three consecutive months below the year-ago period.

On a seasonally adjusted sequential basis, turnover was up 300 basis points to 29%, the highest since May. The firm pointed to the recent election and economic uncertainty as keeping more renters in place than expected.

Cost-to-maintain was up 14% year-over-year, below the 17% reported in September.