BLS: Jobs Close to Flat in October

(Image courtesy of BLS; Breakout image courtesy of Oudney Patsika/pexels.com)

Total nonfarm payroll inched up by just 12,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment increased in health care and government, while temporary help services shed jobs. Employment numbers in manufacturing were also affected due to strike activity.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from 159,000 to 78,000.

For September, it was revised down by 31,000, from 254,000 to 223,000.

“While the unemployment rate was unchanged for the month at 4.1%, the household survey did show a 368,000 decrease in employment, with an estimate that more than 400,000 individuals left the labor force as job seekers pulled back from the market in the face of a slower pace of hiring across the country,” said MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni. “This continues a theme we have seen in recent months, where the labor market is not seeing large layoffs but instead an ongoing reduction in job openings and a reluctance by employers to add workers. That said, wage growth remained steady at a 4% annual rate.”

Looking forward, he continued: “MBA is forecasting a slowdown in the pace of economic growth beginning in this quarter and extending through 2025 and expects that the Federal Reserve will respond by continuing to cut rates at a steady pace over the next year.”

“According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in November by 25 basis points is currently 99.5%, which is up from 95% yesterday. Mortgage rates have largely priced in expected Fed rate cuts but may decline modestly from their recently elevated levels as 10-year Treasury yields have retreated modestly based on today’s news,” First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming said. “Overall, it is unlikely that rates will fall significantly and sustainably below 6% this year, but a slowing labor market is good news for the Fed as it continues to navigate the economy to a soft landing.”