MCT Survey: Industry Experts Optimistic on Volume

(Image courtesy of MCT; Breakout image courtesy of Ksenia Chernaya/

Mortgage Capital Trading, San Diego, recently surveyed more than 100 industry professionals on their outlook for the market in 2024. Almost three quarters–74.1%–expect their mortgage volume to be higher this year than in 2023.

Moreover, 23.3% said the volume would be about the same. Only 2.6% said it would be lower.

Asked about the market as a whole, the survey respondents also showed optimism about mortgage volume. More than three quarters, or 77.4%, said they anticipate higher volume for the entire market in 2024 compared with 2023.

And, 19.1% said it would be about the same. Only 3.5% of respondents said it would be lower.

In terms of mortgage rates throughout the year, a clear majority–57.4%–believed they’d end up around 5.76-6.5% by the end of 2024. The next most popular answer, given by 31.5%, was 6.6-7.25%.

Smaller numbers of respondents believe they’d end up in the 5-5.75% or 7.26-8% range.

The survey also inquired about when respondents believe the Federal Reserve would first cut interest rates. The most popular answer was July, with 35.2% of respondents; 30.5% said June. No. 3 was September at 25.7%.

On May 1, the Federal Reserve again held rates steady, in contrast to what almost 2% of respondents predicted. Other predictions were all below 3%.

MCT noted the survey took place in late March, so some of the highlighted opinions may have been adjusted in the interim.