TransUnion Predicts Mortgage Delinquencies Will Be Flat

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TransUnion, Chicago, released its forecast for 2025, predicting that mortgage delinquencies will be flat a year from now in Q4 2025.

TransUnion acknowledged that mortgage delinquencies have ticked up, with three consecutive year-over-year increases. But, 60-day past due delinquency rates remain very low for mortgages. They currently are forecasted to end 2024 at 1.26%; TransUnion forecasts they’ll be at 1.25% in one year.

Looking across the full credit landscape, TransUnion predicts that following four years of increases in credit card balances and delinquencies, both metrics will continue to moderate.  

“We’ve observed widespread growth in credit cards in recent years for myriad reasons. Notably, credit card issuers felt comfortable taking on more risk, while consumer appetite for credit rose in tandem with higher costs for everyday goods and services,” said Paul Siegfried, Senior Vice President and Credit Card Business Leader at TransUnion. “As inflation pressures dissipate and interest rates continue their slow decline, we believe there will also be a slowing in both credit card balance growth and serious delinquency rates.”

Auto loan delinquencies are expected to stabilize this quarter, and then see a decline by the end of Q4 2025, after two straight years of growth.

And, unsecured personal loan delinquency rates are expected to remain fairly flat this quarter, with a small uptick forecasted for Q4 2025.

“One common thread that we see across lending categories is moderation in serious delinquency, likely driven by a stabilizing economy,” said Jason Laky, Executive Vice President and Head of Financial Services at TransUnion. “Consumers are returning to a financial equilibrium, increasingly finding the room needed in their monthly budgets to make on-time payments and avoid falling behind. Economic conditions are forecast to continue to gradually improve in 2025. As lenders look for loan growth next year, they should use all of the tools at their disposal to make the best possible lending decisions.”