Employment, Initial Claims Data Underwhelm
Ahead of Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, private-sector employment rose by just 128,000 in May, said ADP, Roseland, N.J. In a separate report, the Labor Department said post-pandemic initial claims remain erratic, rising by 4,000 from the previous week.
The ADP National Employment Report said private-sector employment increased by 128,000 jobs from April to May, well under consensus.
By company size, small businesses (1-49 employees) lost 91,000 jobs in May; medium businesses (50-499 employees) added 97,000 jobs, while large businesses added 122,000 jobs.
By sector, goods-producing businesses added 24,000 jobs, while the service sector added 104,000 jobs.
“Under a backdrop of a tight labor market and elevated inflation, monthly job gains are closer to pre-pandemic levels,” said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. “The job growth rate of hiring has tempered across all industries, while small businesses remain a source of concern as they struggle to keep up with larger firms that have been booming as of late.”
In a separate report, BLS said for the week ending July 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims rose to 235,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 231,000. The four-week moving average rose to 232,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 231,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate rose to 1.0 percent for the week ending June 25, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 25 rose to 1,375,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week, which revised down by 4,000, from 1,328,000 to 1,324,000. The four-week moving average rose to 1,335,000, an increase of 16,500 from the previous week’s revised average.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 219,507 in the week ending July 2, an increase of 11,919 (5.7 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 8,553 (4.1 percent) from the previous week. Labor reported 382,622 initial claims in the comparable week in 2021.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate rose to 1.0 percent during the week ending June 25, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,378,215, an increase of 76,664 (5.9 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 25,157 (1.9 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent; volume was 3,243,237.
The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending June 18 was 1,327,839, an increase of 13,570 from the previous week. Labor reported 14,208,913 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2021.
This morning, BLS releases its monthly Employment report. MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni will provide analysis and commentary on the June numbers for the Monday, July 11 edition of MBA NewsLink.