Initial Claims Slide Back Again

Initial claims for unemployment continued their yo-yo pattern, rising for the fourth time in seven weeks, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

For the week ending January 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims rose to 207,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week, which revised up by 2,000 from 198,000 to 200,000. The four-week moving average rose to 204,500, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.3 percent for the week ending December 25. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 25 rose to 1,754,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week, which revised up 2,000 from 1,716,000 to 1,718,000. The four-week moving average fell to 1,798,750, a decrease of 61,250 from the previous week to its lowest level since March 14, 2020, when it was 1,730,750.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 315,469 in the week ending January 1, an increase of 57,599 (22.3 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 50,464 (19.6 percent) from the previous week. Labor reported 898,610 initial claims in the comparable week in 2021.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate rose to 1.4 percent during the week ending December 25, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,871,110, an increase of 232,523 (14.2 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 195,929 (12.0 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 3.7 percent and the volume was 5,362,688.

The report said the total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending December 18 fell to 1,722,352, a decrease of 199,869 from the previous week. Labor reported 20,155,922 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2020.

On Friday, BLS releases its Employment Situation report with data for December. Last month, BLS reported employers added 210,000 jobs in November; the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent.

MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni will provide commentary and analysis on the December jobs report in the Monday, Jan. 10 MBA NewsLink.