MBA Weekly Survey Dec. 21, 2022: Falling Rates Boost Refis for 2nd Straight Week
The lowest interest rates since September spurred an uptick in refinance activity for the second straight week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Wednesday in its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 16.
The Market Composite Index increased by 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased by 1 percent from the previous week.
The unadjusted Refinance Index increased by 6 percent from the previous week but was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 31.3 percent of total applications from 29.4 percent the previous week.
The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased by 3 percent from the previous week and was 36 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The FHA share of total applications decreased to 13.0 percent from 13.1 percent the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 11.9 percent from 11.5 percent the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.6 percent from the week prior.
“The Federal Reserve raised its short-term rate target last week, but longer-term rates, including mortgage rates, declined for the week, with the 30-year conforming rate reaching 6.34 percent – its lowest level since September,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA SVP and Chief Economist. “Refinance application volume increased slightly in response but was still about 85 percent below year-ago levels. This is a particularly slow time of year for homebuying, so it is not surprising that purchase applications did not move much in response to lower mortgage rates.”
Fratantoni noted latest data on the housing market show that homebuilders are pulling back the pace of new construction in response to low levels of traffic. “We expect this weakness in demand will persist in 2023, as the U.S. is likely to enter a recession,” he said. “However, if mortgage rates continue to trend down, as we are forecasting, more buyers are likely to return to the market later in the year, as affordability improves with both lower rates and slower home-price growth.”
MBA reported the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 6.34 percent from 6.42 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.64 (including origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $647,200) decreased to 5.97 percent from 6.14 percent, with points increasing to 0.53 from 0.42 (including origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by FHA decreased to 6.35 percent from 6.40 percent, with points decreasing to 0.99 from 1.03 (including origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.81 percent from 5.92 percent, with points decreasing to 0.53 from 0.54 (including origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The average contract interest rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages decreased to 5.43 percent from 5.58 percent, with points increasing to 0.95 from 0.80 (including origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
The ARM share of activity decreased to 7.5 percent of total applications.
The survey covers more than 75 percent of all U.S. retail and consumer direct residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.
Please Note: MBA offices will be closed Monday, December 26, and will reopen on Tuesday, January 3, 2023. Due to the holiday, results for weeks ending December 23 and December 30 will be released on January 4, 2023.
