Initial Claims: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 11,000 last week, continuing a recent pattern of erratic performance, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

For the week ending September 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims rose to 362,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 351,000. The four-week moving average rose to 340,000, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 335,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell, however, to 2.0 percent for the week ending September 18, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 18 fell to 2,802,000, a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The four-week moving average fell to 2,797,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average to the lowest level since March 21, 2020, when it was 2,071,750.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 298,255 in the week ending September 25, a decrease of 8,326 (2.7 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 18,940 (6.2 percent) from the previous week. Labor reported 732,912 initial claims in the comparable week in 2020. In addition, for the week ending September 25, 39 states reported 16,752 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at1.8 percent during the week ending September 18. The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 2,460,965, a decrease of 48,954 (2.0 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 30,979 (1.2 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 7.6 percent and the volume was 11,037,718.

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending September 11 fell to 5,027,581, a decrease of 6,222,725 from the previous week. Labor reported 27,205,974 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2020.