The Week Ahead Dec. 13, 2021: Four Things to Know

December 10, 2021 |By Mike Sorohan-msorohan@mba.org

Good morning! It’s beginning to look a lot like the holidays—but we’ve still got a few weeks of business to take care of, first. Here are four things to look for this week:

First, The Fed. The Federal Open Market Committee meets this Tuesday, Dec. 14 and Wednesday, Dec. 15. And while consensus forecasts don’t see the Fed raising the federal funds rate (currently at 0-0.25%) until the end of next year at the earliest, analysts will be scrutinizing the FOMC statement (Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET) and any comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell for insight on several issues, including the Fed’s continued tapering of agency mortgage-backed securities purchases and the growing (literally) specter of inflation.

MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni is among those who will be reading the tea leaves; he will provide commentary and analysis in the Thursday, Dec. 16 edition of MBA NewsLink.

Second, Congress. The goal posts keep moving as the House and Senate try to wrap up business for the first session of the 117^th Congress. While a Continuing Resolution keeps the federal government open through Feb. 18, interparty (Democrats and Republicans)and intraparty (Democrats) negotiations continue on the Biden Administration’s Build Back Better legislative package. The House passed the bill last month, largely along party lines; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., hoped to have a Senate vote by today…then before Christmas…but it appears that ongoing negotiations with Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and to a lesser degree, Sen. Krysten Sinema, D-Ariz., could push the vote into next year.

President Biden has publicly stated he doesn’t have a firm deadline for the bill’s passage, just that he wants it done. And so, the situation remains fluid.

The Senate Banking Committee meets this Wednesday, Dec. 15 for a hearing on Disaster Recovery Assistance – Authorization of the Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery Program. The hearing begins at 10:00 a.m. ET in Dirksen Senate Office Building room 538 and can be accessed online here.

For more information about the House and Senate, visit www.house.gov and www.senate.gov, respectively. For more information about upcoming hearings in the Senate Banking Committee, click https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings. For more information about upcoming hearings in the House Financial Services Committee, click https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/?EventTypeID=577&Congress=117.

Third, Housing and Economic Reports. The monthly parade of housing reports gets a bit condensed over the next couple of weeks in anticipation of the quiet period between Christmas an New Year’s.

The Mortgage Bankers Association kicks things off this Tuesday, Dec. 14 with its monthly Builder Applications Survey, featuring commentary and analysis from MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting Joel Kan.

MBA also releases its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey on Wednesday, Dec. 15, with commentary and analysis from Kan.

Other reports this week:

Wednesday: National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index; Advance Retail Sales; Empire State Manufacturing Survey; Imports And Exports; Business Inventories

Thursday: Initial Claims; New Residential Construction; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey; Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

Fourth, MBA Conferences. Here is a list of upcoming MBA Conferences: