Initial Claims Continue Yo-Yo Pattern

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose for the second time in three weeks, the Labor Department reported Thursday, defying momentum that has nonetheless seen claims fall generally below pre-pandemic levels.

For the week ending December 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims rose to 206,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week, which revised up by 4,000 from 184,000 to 188,000. The four-week moving average fell to 203,750, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week to its lowest level since November 15, 1969, when it was 202,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.4 percent for the week ending December 4, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 4 fell to 1,845,000, a decrease of 154,000 from the previous week to its lowest level since March 14, 2020,  when it was 1,770,000. The four-week moving average fell to 1,963,250, a decrease of 66,000 from the previous week’s revised average to its lowest level since March 14, 2020, when it was 1,730,750.

The report said the advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 267,509 in the week ending December 11, a decrease of 16,426 (5.8 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 34,989 (12.3 percent) from the previous week. Labor reported 928,634 initial claims in the comparable week in 2020. In addition, for the week ending December 11, 32 states reported 1,854 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.3 percent during the week ending December 4, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,712,958, a decrease of 252,821 (12.9 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 99,264 (5.0 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 3.7 percent and the volume was 5,479,756.

The report said the total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending November 27 rose to 2,458,419, an increase of 510,808 from the previous week. Labor reported 21,316,898 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2020.