The Week Ahead—Jan. 4, 2021
Good morning and Happy New Year! It won’t take long for us to find out if 2021 is a welcome respite from the chaos of 2020, or if its first words are “hold my beer.”
The 117th Congress convenes this week—but must first contend with the chaotic final weeks of the Trump presidency. Late last month President Trump vetoed a defense appropriations bill—which both the House and Senate easily overrode last week—and, after threatening to veto, Trump ultimately signed a $908 million economic stimulus package—but not before millions of Americans’ unemployment benefits expired temporarily.
Congress convenes with the balance of power in the Senate still very much up in the air. On Tuesday, Jan. 5, voters in Georgia will finish voting on not one, but two Senate seats, the results of which will determine whether Senate control rests with Republicans (who currently have a 50-48 advantage) or with Democrats (who, if they win both seats, would have the advantage of the 50-50 tie with Vice President Kamala Harris, who also serves as Senate President pro tempore, would break tie votes on key legislation—such as, the entire Biden Administration agenda. Without both seats going Democratic, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., would remain so, with the ability to thwart—or at least make difficult—the Biden legislative agenda.
The Georgia Senate races feature runoffs between incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler and the Democratic challenger, Rev. Raphael Warnock. The other race features incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue against Democrat Jon Ossoff. Stay tuned.
On Wednesday, Jan. 6, Congress meets in a joint session to count the votes of the Electoral College—the final step to certify the results of the Nov. 3 elections for President and Vice President. Normally a mere formality—in 2016 then-Vice President Joseph Biden presided over the vote that formally certified the elections of Donald Trump and Mike Pence—this year’s process is complicated by Trump’s refusal to accept the headline results of the election—which had Biden win by a 306-232 margin—filing more than four dozen legal challenges, nearly all of which have ruled against him.
Trump has asked members of the House and Senate to challenge results of certain battleground states; when this happens (and it is almost certain, if several Republican members of the House and possibly one Republican senator follow through on their intentions), the House and Senate retire to their own chambers to determine if the challenge has merit. Both chambers must agree that a particular challenge has merit—a scenario not likely with control of the House securely with Democrats.
Once the Electoral College vote is certified—and the Georgia Senate races decided—the next step is the traditional peaceful transition of power, with the Jan. 20 inaugural of President-Elect Biden and Vice President-Elect Harris—with or without Trump’s participation.
Meanwhile, while the federal government resolves itself, the Mortgage Bankers Association is back at work this morning. MBA continue to observe coronavirus protocols in the District of Columbia, in which no more than 20 percent of MBA employees can be in the offices at 1919 M Street NW at any given time. The majority of MBA employees continue to work remotely and are expected to do so for the foreseeable future.
MBA hits the ground running this week. Following the holiday break, MBA releases a special Weekly Forbearance and Call Volume Survey on Tuesday, Jan. 5, covering the previous two weeks’ results.
On Wednesday, Jan. 6, MBA releases its Weekly Applications Survey, combining results of the weeks ending Dec. 25 and Jan. 1. And on Thursday, Jan. 7, MBA tentatively releases its monthly Mortgage Credit Availability Index.
The MISMO Virtual Winter Summit is one week away, beginning Monday, Jan. 11 and running through Thursday, Jan. 14. For more information, click here.
Here this week’s economic events/reports of interest:
Monday, Jan. 4: Construction
Tuesday, Jan. 5: MBA Forbearance & Call Volume Survey (moved from Monday, Jan. 4); CoreLogic Home Price Index; Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, Jan. 6: MBA Weekly Applications Survey; ADP National Employment Report; Manufacturing, Shipments & Orders
Thursday, Jan. 7: Initial Claims; Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Index; Trade Balance
Friday, Jan. 8: Employment; Trade Balance
Monday, Jan. 11-Thursday, Jan. 14: MISMO Winter Summit
For information about upcoming MBA conferences, click here. Launched this spring, MBA LIVE brings you dynamic keynotes and informative panel discussions you’ve come to rely on from MBA. We’ll be adding even more opportunities to engage with speakers, industry colleagues, and the many vendors and service providers that help keep your business moving forward. Visit mba.org/MBALIVE for the latest information on these events.
For the latest on how the coronavirus is affecting our industry, our health and our economy, visit the MBA Coronavirus Resource Center. And you can also visit the newly created members-only online network, MBA’s COVID-19 Residential Policy Community, at https://bit.ly/2QEVpUZ. #MBAWorkingForYou #MBACOVIDUpdates
For the most up-to-date information regarding legislative activity at the state and local level, visit the MBA State Legislative Database at http://www.mortgagebankers.org/statelegislativedatabaselogin.htm.
For information about MBA Education events, visit http://www.mbaeducation.org.
For information about the National Association of Minority Mortgage Bankers of America (NAMMBA), visit https://www.nammba.org/.
If your company/association is an MBA member, we are happy to list conferences/events on the MBA NewsLink Upcoming Meetings/Events Calendar. Send your items to Mike Sorohan, editor, at msorohan@mba.org; or Michael Tucker, Editorial Manager, at mtucker@mba.org.
