Mortgage Credit Availability Increased in July
Mortgage credit availability increased in July according to the Mortgage Credit Availability Index, a Mortgage Bankers Association report that analyzes data from Ellie Mae’s AllRegs® Market Clarity® business information tool.
The MCAI rose by 1.5 percent to 126.9 in July. A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index indicate loosening credit. The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012.
The Conventional MCAI increased 2.9 percent, while the Government MCAI increased by 0.4 percent. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI increased by 5.0 percent and the Conforming MCAI rose by 1.2 percent.
“Credit availability rose slightly in July – the first increase in eight months – as the supply of certain types of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) and jumbo loans increased. The improvement was more of a leveling off from the precipitous drop earlier this spring. Credit availability is still over 30 percent lower than a year ago and near its lowest level since 2014,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The July data signals that lenders saw conditions improve this summer, as forbearance requests flattened, and record-low mortgage rates spurred strong levels of purchase and refinance activity.”
Kan noted evidence that the resurgence of COVID-19 cases has cooled the job market recovery, “which may temper borrower demand and the overall improvement in the economy.”
CONVENTIONAL, GOVERNMENT, CONFORMING AND JUMBO MCAI COMPONENT INDICES
The MCAI rose by 1.5 percent to 126.9 in July. The Conventional MCAI increased 2.9 percent, while the Government MCAI increased by 0.4 percent. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI increased by 5.0 percent, and the Conforming MCAI rose by 1.2 percent.
The Conventional, Government, Conforming and Jumbo MCAIs are constructed using the same methodology as the Total MCAI and are designed to show relative credit risk/availability for their respective index. The primary difference between the total MCAI and the Component Indices are the population of loan programs which they examine. The Government MCAI examines FHA/VA/USDA loan programs, while the Conventional MCAI examines non-government loan programs. The Jumbo and Conforming MCAIs are a subset of the conventional MCAI and do not include FHA, VA, or USDA loan offerings. The Jumbo MCAI examines conventional programs outside conforming loan limits, while the Conforming MCAI examines conventional loan programs that fall under conforming loan limits.
The Conforming and Jumbo indices have the same “base levels” as the Total MCAI (March 2012=100), while the Conventional and Government indices have adjusted “base levels” in March 2012. MBA calibrated the Conventional and Government indices to better represent where each index might fall in March 2012 (the “base period”) relative to the Total=100 benchmark.
EXPANDED HISTORICAL SERIES
The Total MCAI has an expanded historical series that gives perspective on credit availability going back approximately 10-years (expanded historical series does not include Conventional, Government, Conforming or Jumbo MCAI). The expanded historical series covers 2004 through 2010 and was created to provide historical context to the current series by showing how credit availability has changed over the last 10 years–including the housing crisis and ensuing recession. Data prior to March 31, 2011, was generated using less frequent and less complete data measured at six-month intervals and interpolated in the months between for charting purposes. Methodology on the expanded historical series from 2004 to 2010 has not been updated.
ABOUT THE MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX
The MCAI provides the only standardized quantitative index that is solely focused on mortgage credit.
The MCAI is calculated using several factors related to borrower eligibility (credit score, loan type, loan-to-value ratio, etc.). These metrics and underwriting criteria for over 95 lenders/investors are combined by MBA using data made available via the AllRegs® Market Clarity® product and a proprietary formula derived by MBA to calculate the MCAI, a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time. Base period and values for total index is March 31, 2012=100; Conventional March 31, 2012=73.5; Government March 31, 2012=183.5.
The MBA updated its methodology in August 2016 which produced an updated set of index values (historically and moving forward), for more information on this updated methodology please visit www.mba.org/MortgageCredit and read the FAQ and Methodology documents. Any historical data obtained prior to August 2016 is not comparable to the current, revised index and should be replaced with the new history.
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For more information on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index, including Methodology, Frequently Asked Questions and other helpful resources, please click here or contact MBAResearch@mba.org.