CoreLogic: Delinquency Rates at 18 Year-Low

CoreLogic, Irvine, Calif., said mortgage delinquencies fell to their lowest rates since 2000, with foreclosure inventories at their lowest rate since 2005.

The company’s monthly Loan Performance Insights Report said nationally, 4.1 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) in October, representing a 1 percentage point decline in the overall delinquency rate compared from a year ago. This was the lowest for the month of October in at least 18 years.

Also as of October, the foreclosure inventory rate, which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, fell to 0.5 percent, down 0.1 percentage point from a year ago. The October foreclosure inventory rate tied with the April, May, June, July, August and September rates this year as the lowest for any month since September 2006 and also marked the lowest rate for an October since 2005.

The report said the rate for early-stage delinquencies (30-59 days past due) fell to 1.9 percent in October, down from 2.3 percent a year ago. The share of mortgages 60-89 days past due fell to 0.7 percent, down from 0.9 percent a year ago. The serious delinquency rate (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure) fell to 1.5 percent in October, down from 1.9 percent a year ago, the lowest for an October since 2006 when it was 1.5 percent. It ties August and September 2018 as the lowest for any month since March 2007.

The report said the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due fell to 0.8 percent in October, down from 1.1 percent a year ago. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2 percent, while it peaked in November 2008 at 2 percent.

“While the strong economy has helped families stay current and push overall delinquency rates lower, areas that were hit hard by natural disasters have seen a rise in loan defaults,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft.

For example, CoreLogic said the 30-day delinquency rate in the Panama City, Fla. metro area tripled between September and October as a result of Hurricane Michael. Two months after Hurricane Florence made landfall in the Carolinas, 60-day delinquency rates doubled in the Jacksonville, Wilmington, New Bern and Myrtle Beach metro areas. And buffeted by Kilauea’s eruption in the Hawaiian Islands, serious delinquency rates jumped on Hilo by 9 percent between June and October 2018, while falling by 4 percent in the rest of Hawaii.”

CoreLogic said Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Florence (2017 and 2018, respectively) continue to impact some metropolitan areas, with mortgages transitioning from current to 30 days past due. In October, 18 metropolitan areas posted an annual increase in overall delinquency rate, seven of which were either in North or South Carolina.