Redfin Study Explores Politics, People Migration
Following the most unusual election season in decades, the definitions of “red state” and “blue state” have never been starker. And according to Redfin, Seattle, they’re influencing where people move–and how those moves could shape future political races.
Redfin reported in the first half of 2017, 7.4 percent more people moved out of politically blue counties than to them. Red counties saw about 1 percent more people moving in than moving out. Purple counties, where there’s a more balanced share of Democrats and Republicans, saw 3.9 percent more migrants moving in than out (http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20171013005083/en/).
Redfin Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted the trend is even more pronounced in “swing states,” which saw blue counties lose 9.2 percent more people than they gained, while Republican counties gained 2.3 percent more than they lost.
Redfin analyzed its own user search data, comparing where prospective homebuyers currently live to where they are searching for a home to buy. Counties were classified as “blue” if the Democratic candidate for 2016 won by more than 20 percentage points and vice versa for “red” counties.
Richardson said high housing costs in blue counties are driving migration trends. Nationwide, the average home in a blue county costs nearly $360,000–more than 62 percent more than that of homes in red counties ($223,000).
“As blue counties are becoming increasingly less affordable, we see a great number of residents moving to red counties where they can afford the lifestyle they want,” Richardson said.
However, the report noted politics can be a key factor for people in deciding where to move. Redfin reported 41 percent of recent homebuyers reported hesitations about moving to a place where most people have political views different from their own. In contrast, fewer than one in 10 respondents was enthusiastic about moving to a different political climate, with the remaining half neutral.
Richardson said the trend is likely to continue, calling the housing affordability crisis in the bluest counties “unprecedented.” With no sign of a drastic drop in prices anytime soon, she said “there’s an argument that many more people, regardless of politics, will move to where they can buy a comfortable home.”
But Richardson also noted that might not be a bad thing in itself. “We see this as a sign of hope for a less divided country, where people with differing views gain better understanding and tolerance of each other through sheer proximity,” she said.
