MBA Forecast: Commercial/Multifamily Originations Flat in 2018

The Mortgage Bankers Association projected 2017 commercial and multifamily mortgage originations to increase to $515 billion–up 5 percent from 2016. 

The forecast also call for volumes to remain at that level in 2018 as well.

MBA projected mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages to reach $235 billion in 2017, with total multifamily lending at $271 billion. After strong growth in 2017, multifamily lending is expected to slow slightly in 2018.

“Commercial and multifamily markets remain strong, even as many growth measures are exhibiting a bit of a downshift,” said MBA Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell.

Woodwell said property values are up 6 percent through the first eight months of the year. “Despite a decline in property sales transactions, commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 15 percent higher during the first half of this year than a year earlier,” he said. “We expect stable property markets and strong capital availability to continue to support mortgage borrowing and lending in 2018.”

Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2017, ending the year roughly six percent higher than at the end of 2016, MBA said.

MBA’s commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at