Leading Economic Indicators Fall for First Time in Year

Blame it on Harvey. And Irma.

The Conference Board, New York, said its Leading Economic Index fell by 0.2 percent in September to 128.6, the first monthly decline in a year, coming off an 0.4 percent increase in August and an 0.3 percent increase in July.

The Coincident Economic Index increased by 0.1 percent in September to 115.7, following no change in August and an 0.1 percent increase in July. The Lagging Economic Index declined y b0.1 percent in September to 125.2, following an 0.4 percent increase in August and an 0.1 percent increase in July.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research with The Conference Board, attributed the decline to after-effects of Harvey and Irma. “The source of weakness was concentrated in labor markets and residential construction, while the majority of the LEI components continued to contribute positively,” he said. “Despite September’s decline, the trend in the US LEI remains consistent with continuing solid growth in the US economy for the second half of the year.”

Tim Quinlan, senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities, Charlotte, N.C., agreed that recent hurricanes were likely the culprit. “The source of weakness was largely contained in labor markets and residential construction, consistent with the hurricane impact,” he said.