What Mortgage Bankers Can Learn from Women and Retail

PALM SPRINGS, CALIF.–In a week in which data have been presented as “facts” and “alternative facts,” context is everything.

For Sarah Quinlan, senior vice president and group head of market insights with MasterCard Advisors, New York, data are more than statistics; they provide the best predictor of trends and consumer behavior that can help lenders make sound business decisions.

“Consumer spending is 70 percent of gross domestic product in this country,” Quinlan said here at the MBA Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference. “We can look at benchmarking and predict trends that directly affect your business.”

Specifically, Quinlan said, retail sales provide the sharpest indicator of consumer trends–even when it comes to home purchases. “We’re not seeing the same patterns in 2008; we’ve seen a permanent shift in consumer behavior,” Quinlan said.

One shift, Quinlan noted, has occurred in the two-income family, which has become the norm; the other shift is in the business model, which, out of necessity, has become more personalized.

“We buy experiences now,” Quinlan said, noting sharp increases in consumer spending on travel, lodging and home furnishings. “We’re not moving as much; we’re spending more on home improvements–on experiences that we can enjoy. And we’re not spending on luxury.”

And despite an increase in online shopping, Quinlan said brick and mortar is still important. “We still want the social experience,” she said.

Quinlan said business need to look to where people are moving–and they are continuing to move South. “The Northeast has fewer people than ever, and they’re not coming back,” she said. “They’re moving to where the jobs are, and the jobs are in the South.”

MasterCard has create a model for real estate, using retail data to measure trends in locations. For example, the model shows that population growth in Chicago is being driven by people moving into the city from the western suburbs. “These are people who are tired of driving into work two hours every day on the Dan Ryan Expressway,” Quinlan said.

The model also shows that Millennials are not moving from the cities to the suburbs once they have kids. “They’re buying bunkbeds,” Quinlan said. “Consumers are tired of the commute; they want to spend time with their family and kids. They don’t care about the backyard when they have Central Park.”

When marketing, Quinlan advised independent mortgage bankers to “not ignore the woman. We are responsible for most of the spending and most of the decision-making in this country.”