Study IDs ‘Hot’ 4Q Markets

ATTOM Data Solutions, Irvine, Calif., said its “pre-mover” data show what are likely to be home sales “hot spots” in the fourth quarter, including Colorado Springs, Colo., Washington, D.C. and Nashville.

The company’s Q3 2017 Pre-Mover Housing Index, based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag during a quarter to total single family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average, also identified Manchester, N.H. and Chicago as areas likely to have an above-average ratio of home sold in the next 30 to 90 days.

ATTOM said the top five markets among 123 total metro areas analyzed for the report  all posted a pre-mover index of 196 or higher. Other markets in the top 10 for highest pre-mover index in the third quarter were Reno, Nev. (189); Tampa-St. Petersburg  (188); Las Vegas (180); Jacksonville, Fla. (179); and Kingsport-Bristol, Tenn. (178).

Markets with the lowest pre-mover indices in the third quarter were Rochester, N.Y. (35); Akron, Ohio (47); Myrtle Beach, S.C. (47); Providence, R.I. (52); and Cleveland (52).

“Home buyers are most likely to move–and homeowners are more likely to move up–in markets with plenty of available jobs along with a reasonable supply of homes for sale,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions. “Markets with this enviable and increasingly rare combination of jobs and housing inventory tend to be in secondary and even tertiary markets that are somewhat off the beaten path. Even in more mainstream markets, the counties with the highest pre-mover indices tend to be in outlying areas where more inventory is available or can be built.”

Of 331 U.S. counties analyzed for the report, 213 posted a pre-mover index above the national average in the third quarter. The average September unemployment rate in those 213 counties was 3.8 percent, compared to an average unemployment rate of 4.2 percent in the 118 counties that posted a pre-mover index below the national average in the third quarter.

Weekly wages grew 6.4 percent from a year ago on average in the 213 counties with a Q3 2017 pre-mover index above the national average while average weekly wages grew 6.5 percent from a year ago on average in the counties with a third quarter pre-mover index below the national average.