Leading Economic Indicators Continue Upward Trend

The Conference Board, New York, said its Leading Economic Index marked its seventh consecutive monthly increase in March, with indicators pointing toward continued economic growth through 2017.

The Leading Economic Index increased by 0.4 percent in March to 126.7, following an 0.5 percent increase in February and an 0.6 percent increase in January. The Coincident Economic Index increased by 0.2 percent in March to 114.9, following an 0.2 percent increase in February and no change in January. The Lagging Economic Index was unchanged in March (123.6), following an 0.2 percent increase in both February and January.

“The March increase and upward trend in the U.S. LEI point to continued economic growth in 2017, with perhaps an acceleration later in the year if consumer spending and investment pick up,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research with The Conference Board. “The gains among the leading indicators were very widespread, with new orders in manufacturing and the interest rate spread more than offsetting declines in the labor market components in March.”

Tim Quinlan, senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities, Charlotte, N.C., said strength in Institute for Supply Management new orders and interest rate spread components continue to help boost the index, while the labor market, manufacturing and jobless claims worked against the index.

“The LEI’s upward trend continues to signal moderate economic growth in 2017,” Quinlan said.